Peramalan Jumlah Penerima Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Tipe Brown di Kota Pariaman

Abstract

The continuously increasing poverty rate in Pariaman City raises new questions about whether the government's poverty alleviations trategies are optimal. One of the government's poverty alleviation programs to meet food needs is the provision of Non-Cash Food Assistance (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai or BPNT). This study aims to model and forecast the number of BPNT recipients in Pariaman City in the first quarter of 2025-2026 using Brown’s Triple Exponential Smoothing method. The type of data used is secondary data from the Pariaman City Social Service during the period 2019-2024. The results of the analysis show that the value of the smallest MSE is 403500.7661 using a parameter value of 0.32. Based on the model obtained, the forecast results for the number of recipients of BPNT in Pariaman City for the first quarter of 2025-first quarter of 2026 are 4231 family, 4225 family, 4219 family, 4212 family, and 4204 family.